Postmortem Cost and Schedule Analysis - Lessons Learned On NCSX
Authors: R. Strykowsky, T. Brown, J. Chrzanowski, M. Cole, P. Heitzenroeder, G.H. Neilson, Donald Rej, and M. Viola
Abstract:
The National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) was
designed to test physics principles of an innovative fusion energy confinement device
developed by the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL) and Oak Ridge
National Laboratory (ORNL) under contract from the US Department of Energy. The
project was technically very challenging, primarily due to the complex component
geometries and tight tolerances that were required. As the project matured these
challenges manifested themselves in significant cost overruns through all phases of
the project (i.e. design, R&D, fabrication and assembly). The project was
subsequently cancelled by the DOE in 2008. Although the project was not completed,
several major work packages, comprising about 65% of the total estimated cost
(excluding management and contingency), were completed, providing a data base of
actual costs that can be analyzed to understand cost drivers. Technical factors that
drove costs included the complex geometry, tight tolerances, material requirements,
and performance requirements. Management factors included imposed annual
funding constraints that throttled project cash flow, staff availability, and inadequate
R&D. Understanding how requirements and design decisions drove cost through this
top-down forensic cost analysis could provide valuable insight into the configuration
and design of future state-of-the art machines and other devices.
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Submitted to: American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
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Download PPPL-4742 (pdf KB pp)
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