Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

Authors: C. Neumeyer, R. Goldston

Abstract:  "The Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is an important measure of the energy gain ofan electrical  power  generating  facility  that is typically  evaluated  based  on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise  a complete  power system  and used to assess the expansion  and evolution  of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies  to another over time. In this study we  develop  a  dynamic  EROI  model  that  simulates  the  evolution  of  a  power  system  and  we perform an EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental  Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) covering the global supply of electricity  in the 21st  century.  The  basic  concept  of dynamic  EROI  developed  by Kessides  and Wade [1] is extended to accommodate arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios in order to determine the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed  and  delivered  power,  above  and  beyond  basic  consumer  demand,  that  is required  to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary  power that may be required if plowback constraints  are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters,  and the impact"
of energy storage efficiency are addressed.
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